Turkey Election: Who Would Benefit More From A Runoff?

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The results of Turkey's presidential election are a testament to the nation's political acumen. The race is a tight one, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan receiving just above 49% of the vote, and his rival Kamal Kilicdaroglu trailing with 45.1%. If neither candidate wins more than 50% of the vote, a runoff will be held in two weeks. This would be Erdogan's worst first-round result ever, despite his attempts to harness public anger at economic conditions and the botched earthquake response by the government.

The Unlikely Victory Speech

Erdogan, unlike in his previous presidential elections, couldn't claim a first-round win for his waiting supporters. Despite his slight edge, he accepted the possibility of a runoff. His supporters, however, fear that votes for the third-placed candidate would now flow to Erdogan. If it goes to the second round, Erdogan is confident he will win. His supporters are confident the incumbent will triumph sooner or later, and extend his nearly two decades in power.

The Second Round: A New Challenge

Kilicdaroglu also expressed his readiness for another vote in two weeks. If the nation says second round, they gladly accept it and believe they will win this election in the second round. Erdogan, on the other hand, is confident that his party has won a majority in Sunday's concurrent parliamentary elections and that voters wanted stability in the presidential office.

The Unresolved Election

The election results are unresolved and closer than expected, keeping Turkey's political climate fired up. The high electoral board confirmed that Erdogan is leading with just over 49% and Kilicdaroglu is trailing with just over 45%. There are still some overseas votes that need to be accounted for, which generally favor Erdogan. This leaves a possibility that he could possibly go over the finishing line with 50 plus one and win outright in the first round.

The Runoff Election

The momentum is now with Erdogan, who was seen as a front-runner ahead of Sunday's vote. However, Erdogan has reversed that, appearing to have come first. This has confounded many pollsters. Erdogan has secured a comfortable majority in Parliament, which will be key going forward in his expected campaign. His campaign will be about stability, or the need to have the ruling party controlling Parliament and the same person in power in the presidency.

The Challenge for Kilicdaroglu

The major challenge facing Kilicdaroglu in the next two weeks is to keep his Coalition United. Recriminations are expected to decide to break out even possibly within the opposition over what went wrong on Sunday night. He needs to keep his Coalition United and a lot of question marks over whether he will be able to do that.

The Final Thoughts

The election results are a Thai game. Both Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu have to show whether they are able to win. It will be a hard struggle for both of them. However, the result will be accepted by the other side. Germany, with the largest Turkish community in Europe, has traditionally been big supporters of President Erdogan. The result will be accepted, as it is a democratic decision taken by the people in Turkey.


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Turkey election: Who would benefit more from a runoff?
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