🚨 Here's The Dpi (Digital Price Index) Before The Cpi

Greetings, fellow money enthusiasts! It's Katie with MoneyVesting, and let's get right to it. In less than 12 hours, the latest inflation numbers are dropping like an eagerly awaited movie sequel. And guess what? I'll be going live tomorrow morning at 8 A.M. Eastern sharp to dissect those CPI numbers, so mark your calendars!

But before we dive into the numbers, let's chat about expectations and my personal take on this red-hot topic. Feel free to share your predictions in the comments, because your thoughts are part of this grand financial symphony.

The Inflation Numbers: Unwrapping Expectations

So, what's the buzz around these inflation numbers? Well, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for this month is expected to clock in at a modest 1.3 percent. But let's not stop there. Year-over-year, we're anticipating a rather dramatic slowdown from a blazing 6 to a more tamed 5.2 percent. For the core CPI, which strips away food and energy, the forecast is a 0.4 percent month-over-month bump and a solid 5.6 percent for the year. The real kicker here is that core CPI might outdo headline CPI for the year.

Now, let me introduce you to my triumvirate of scenarios. There's my "base case," the cautiously optimistic "bull case," and the less-than-sunny "bear case." I've broken these down in a previous video, but I'll sprinkle more insight shortly.

The Cleveland Fed's Take

What's the Cleveland Fed got to say? Well, they're pointing at a 0.3 percent CPI and a 0.45 percent core CPI for March. Yearly, they're eyeballing a 5.2 percent CPI and a 5.66 percent core. And for core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures), they're predicting a 4.6 percent yearly figure with a 0.38 percent monthly boost. This data is as fresh as a morning breeze—updated as of April 11th.

The Digital Price Index: A Different Beast

But, wait, there's more! Adobe, the creative software powerhouse, has its own take on prices with the Digital Price Index (DPI). This index delves into the realm of digital commerce, scrutinizing how much consumers are shelling out for goods and services online. It's the cyber cousin of the traditional Consumer Price Index (CPI) that's busy tracking offline prices.

Powered by Adobe Analytics, the DPI dissects a colossal one trillion visits to online retail sites and surveys over 100 million product listings across 18 product categories. These categories range from electronics to apparel, appliances to books, and everything in between. If you can buy it online, DPI's got its algorithmic fingers on it.

In March, the DPI reveals a tale of tenacity. Out of 18 categories, ten experienced price drops, while eight climbed up the price mountain. The most substantial descent occurred in the "flowers and related gifts" category, with a staggering 24.3 percent drop year-over-year. Eight categories saw price hikes, including personal care, office supplies, pet products, groceries, non-prescription drugs, appliances, medical equipment and supplies, and apparel.

So, what does this digital rollercoaster mean for your wallet? Well, online groceries experienced a 10.3 percent year-over-year increase, with a 0.4 percent monthly bump. While this might suggest we're about to face even higher food bills, the six-month trend shows a slowdown in the increase. It's like a culinary crescendo that's tapering off, as we've eased from 11.4 percent in February and 12.6 percent in January.

In the realm of personal care, monthly prices dipped 1.5 percent, but they surged 4.4 percent annually. Furniture and bedding followed suit with a 1.3 percent monthly decline. Electronics joined the party with a 1.3 percent monthly drop, landing at a 12.9 percent yearly decrease in March.

Apparel, on the other hand, danced to a different tune, rising 1.8 percent on a monthly basis and 6.6 percent year-over-year.

With shelter and groceries as the heavyweight contenders in the inflation ring, it's clear that energy prices are showing signs of fatigue, but food prices are still flexing their muscles. All signs point to a base case, with some hopeful tendencies.

The Federal Reserve Watch: A Peek into May

Speaking of the Federal Reserve, let's gaze into the crystal ball of the FED watch tool. The market is all abuzz about the May meeting, and here's the lowdown: there's nearly a 70 percent probability of a 25 basis point hike. However, the markets remain peculiarly optimistic about future rate cuts. They're anticipating a grand total of nine cuts up to September next year, which would nudge rates down to a cozy 3.25 percent.

But wait, there's a twist in the plot! It seems that the scriptwriters of the financial markets have us on a rollercoaster, with rates bumping between 2.5 and 2.75 percent in their fed funds futures. So, get ready for a thrilling ride, and keep your eyes peeled on what these upcoming inflation numbers reveal.

As we approach the brink of the data release, the markets are holding their breath, anticipating the grand unveiling. Stay tuned for my live coverage at 8:30 A.M. Eastern because we'll decode the mystery together.

So, my fellow financial adventurers, tell me in the comments below: what's your take on the inflation numbers? Do you think they'll dance to a different beat than what the experts predict? As always, if you enjoyed this journey into the labyrinth of finance, hit that like button, subscribe to our channel, and don't forget to check out our Discord and Patreon down below. Plus, the 16th annual discount is still up for grabs until the end of this month.

Until next time, happy investing, and may your financial horizons be as limitless as your dreams! 🚀💰