Bitcoin April Will Be Big [Price Statistics]

Hello, dear readers! Welcome back to the Erica Crown crypto Channel, where we traverse the fascinating landscape of cryptocurrency. Today, I'm serving you a delicious dose of insights with a side of humor on this Exercise Friday morning as we bid adieu to an eventful week filled with opportunities.

Unraveling the 6-Hour HPDR Setup

Let's start by diving into the nitty-gritty of the crypto world. It's been an exciting week, with plenty of setups to dissect. I'd like to shine the spotlight on the six-hour HPDR setup that made waves recently, propelling us closer to that tantalizing $29,000 price point.

This setup hinges on a six-hour timeframe and involves a critical element – closing below those blue range lows you see on your screen. It's this very move that initiated a higher probability of a bounce. In fact, we're looking at a staggering 68.35% probability of a bounce, with gains ranging from 5% to 7%. The setup delivered a quick 6% surge, well within the expected parameters.

What's even more intriguing is that the exit conditions for this setup haven't been met yet. The average number of bars in trades over the past three years is typically 18, but this one completed its rally in just three bars. That's quite an outlier, suggesting that there's a good chance this rally has more room to run.

So, what's the profit-taking condition, and how many bars can we expect before a move concludes? The average bars condition stands at 18, which would take us into Monday. It's reasonable to assume that this setup hasn't fully played out just yet. The more adventurous traders should consider taking profits at this juncture, given the rapid climb. However, I'm just here to provide insights, not personalized financial advice.

The Weekly CME Closure and the Mean Band Challenge

Fasten your seatbelts, as the Weekly CME closure is about to make waves. If CME manages to close above that mean band – the one that's been eluding us since March of last year – it might just be a game-changer. This critical level currently stands at $28,050, and a close above it could signal an exciting journey to the upper side of the main band.

Historically, whenever the weekly Gaussian Channel turned red and Bitcoin managed to close above the mean band, we saw a free ride to the upside. As we approach the weekly closure on Sunday, all eyes are on this crucial level. Closing above $28,500 would be a very promising sign, and we'd be setting our sights on the upper side of the Gaussian Channel, around $32,000 to $33,000.

Weekly RSI, Gaussian Channel, and the Weekly Jewel

Now, let's turn our attention to the Weekly RSI. For the first time since September 2021, we're seeing a shift towards bullish territory. The RSI had a hidden divergence in play, and it's now making its way back into the bullish controls. As we approach the weekly closure on Sunday, we're observing several factors converging in an exciting dance.

The Weekly Gaussian Channel, the Weekly Jewel – all these pieces are aligning like stars in the night sky. Should the Weekly Jewel turn cyan, we could be in for a continuation of this bullish trend. With all these indicators in sync, we're looking at a potential surge in mid-April, possibly reaching $31,000 to $32,000.

Of course, as always, these are just probabilities, not guarantees. Bitcoin can be as unpredictable as the weather. But what's the worst-case scenario? A break below $26,500 on a closing basis would certainly make me put on my bearish hat. Until then, the statistics and probabilities favor the upside.

The 5-Day Volatility and Stochastic Momentum Setup

In the world of cryptocurrency, a fascinating setup is brewing. The 5-Day Volatility versus Stochastic Momentum setup is creating ripples in the pond. Extreme contraction in volatility, coupled with an upward trajectory in the stochastic oscillator, has historically led to substantial price moves – an average of 40% over a little more than a month.

Currently, we're experiencing another period of volatility compression, and if this expansion continues, it could signify significant gains. Given that the 5-Day stochastic oscillator remains tilted to the upside, the odds of continued bullish momentum are heightened.

Historically, all 11 instances of this setup have led to a price increase, and this time, the numbers seem to favor an upward trajectory. If we continue on this path, we could see a significant move by early to mid-April, with potential price targets around $31,000 to $32,000.

But remember, nothing in the crypto world is etched in stone. It all hinges on probabilities and potential, and one breaking point remains clear: a close below $26,500 would shift the landscape into a bearish territory.

In conclusion, the crypto world is brimming with excitement and opportunities. Keep a close eye on these setups and indicators, but always remember that the crypto market has its fair share of surprises. Until next time, stay curious and stay positive. See you soon!