Analysis: Russia Now In A 'Much Worse Military Situation' With Finland Joining Nato

The world of geopolitics is often a perplexing chessboard, with each move strategically calculated. One such move that's shaking up the geopolitical landscape is Finland and Sweden's bold decision to seek NATO membership. The stakes are high, and the implications are massive. Hold on to your seats because this is not just a big deal; this is a game-changer.

Finland's Surprising Shift

Finland, a nation with a relatively small army but a history of valiant resistance against the Russian bear, has been fiercely independent since 1945. The Finns remember the Winter War of 1939-40 when they stood their ground against the invading Russians, earning respect for their resilience. But now, they are making a shift that's sending shockwaves through the NATO corridors.

This shift is remarkable because it's not just about Finland; it's about the entirety of European security. When Finland mobilizes, it can muster an army of over 200,000 soldiers – that's three times the size of the British army! Their land forces are formidable, well-trained, and equipped. So, when Finland makes a move, you better believe they mean it.

The Echoes of History

To understand the gravity of this shift, we need to revisit history. During World War II, Finland found itself entangled with the Nazis, albeit reluctantly, in their fight against the Soviets. After the war, Finland embraced neutrality, and they have held onto it steadfastly since 1945.

This neutrality, however, didn't mean sitting idly by. Finland played a careful diplomatic game with Russia, ensuring that the bear remained content. Throughout the Cold War and up until 1991, Finland treaded lightly, maintaining a delicate balance. However, as the years passed, Finland asserted its independence and self-determination, leading to their desire to join NATO.

Putin's Poker Face

Now, let's talk about the elephant in the room – Vladimir Putin. The Russian leader may pretend not to care about Finland and Sweden's NATO aspirations, but make no mistake, he cares a lot. This move extends NATO's territory by over 830 miles (or 1,300 kilometers) along the Russian border.

It's like adding a new room to your house without asking for permission – it's a big deal, and Putin knows it. This expansion changes Russia's defense calculus, giving them more to worry about. With their current commitments in Ukraine, Russia doesn't have enough troops to properly secure this extended frontier. Putin can put on a brave face, but there's only so much he can do.

A Defeat for Putin

This shift is monumental; it's the most significant development in European security since Germany's remilitarization in 1955. Back then, Germany joined NATO, marking a turning point in the post-World War II era. Finland and Sweden's NATO aspirations, in the context of contemporary geopolitics, are just as monumental.

President Putin might say that his invasion of Ukraine was to prevent NATO enlargement, but the fact is, this move has achieved precisely what he aimed to avoid. It's a diplomatic defeat for him, plain and simple.

One of Putin's justifications for the Ukraine invasion was that NATO was creeping closer to Russia. However, Ukraine wasn't a NATO member, and there was no immediate plan for it to become one. But with Finland's membership in the works and Sweden likely to follow suit, the geopolitical map has been redrawn.

The New Geopolitical Reality

In the short term, Russia's security situation has worsened. NATO is now bigger and more robust than it has been in years, both militarily and politically. Russia is caught in a bind, unable to alter this new reality significantly.

Putin had multiple motives for the Ukrainian war, one of which was to push NATO back. He believed NATO was the driving force behind Eastern European states clamoring for membership. However, NATO was largely responding to the aspirations of these nations. The result? NATO is now a force to be reckoned with, and Russia finds itself in a challenging position.

As we witness this tectonic shift in European security, it's clear that we're living through a momentous chapter in history. Finland and Sweden's ambitions have unleashed a domino effect that will undoubtedly shape the geopolitical landscape for years to come.

The world of geopolitics is never stagnant, and with these developments, it's buzzing with excitement and anticipation. The game has changed, and we're all eagerly waiting to see how the players adapt to this new reality. In a world where the only constant is change, this is one change that promises to have a profound impact on the future.