Ukraine War: Battle For Bakhmut 'Essentially A Draw' But Losses Are 'Phenomenal'

General Sir Richard Barons, the former commander of the Joint Forces Command, joined us today to discuss the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The Russians have recently claimed control of the last high-rise residential building in the western city of Bakmut. This development might seem significant, but the situation is far more complex than it appears.

The Strategic Stalemate

The Russian occupation of Bakmut has granted them control over the city center, which was originally a critical objective. However, Ukrainian forces maintain control of the high ground to the north and south of the city, along with a crucial road leading into Bakmut. So, in reality, it's a stalemate, with both sides unwilling to yield.

This battle has evolved into an iconic showdown, characterized by both sides committing countless lives to the fight. The Wagner Group, a notorious Russian paramilitary organization, has suffered significant losses during the conflict. Yet, the question lingers: why is Bakmut so crucial?

The Geopolitical Chessboard

The strategic significance of Bakmut lies in Russia's initial intention to use it as a stepping stone to seize the entire Donetsk region. However, the fierce resistance from Ukrainian forces has thwarted that plan. The battle has evolved into a symbol of unyielding determination, where thousands have been thrust into the throes of war. Despite the heavy toll on both sides, there is no clear victor in sight.

The intensity of this conflict has disrupted the Wagner Group's operations, forcing them to withdraw temporarily. The losses on both sides have been staggering, but the battle for Bakmut remains a testament to the relentless spirit of those involved.

The Spring Offensive Dilemma

The looming question on everyone's mind is the anticipated Ukrainian spring offensive. Russia is well aware that Ukraine is planning a major offensive move, but the details remain shrouded in secrecy. In the closing stages of the battle for Bakmut, Russia had to divert critical resources to halt the Ukrainian advance. This diversion might hinder their preparedness for the upcoming Ukrainian offensive.

The timing and nature of this offensive will play a pivotal role in the future of this conflict. President Zelensky's recent discussions at the G7 Summit in Japan, where he secured a promise of F-16 fighter jets, point to a prolonged war. The delivery of these jets will take approximately 18 months, signaling that both sides are preparing for a protracted conflict.

The Game-Changing F-16s

The inclusion of F-16 fighter jets is a game-changer. These fourth-generation aircraft will tip the scales in favor of Ukraine, providing a decisive advantage over the Russian Air Force and Ground Forces. When Ukraine acquires enough F-16s and the necessary ammunition, they will be a formidable force in the skies, a prospect that Russia undoubtedly dreads.

The current state of the Ukrainian Air Force is riddled with challenges. Their predominantly Russian aircraft are well-known to the Russian military, making it difficult for them to challenge Russian air superiority. The F-16s promise to change this landscape dramatically.

International Support for Ukraine

As Ukraine secures F-16s, other NATO member states equipped with these aircraft might consider contributing to the effort. The decision to provide these aircraft will be complex, as it will necessitate an evaluation of their own defense priorities. This move could open the door to increased NATO involvement in the conflict.

However, it is essential to underline that there is an understanding that these NATO aircraft, including the F-16s, will not be used over Russian soil. The conflict remains a territorial one, and no one wants to see it escalate beyond the borders of Ukraine.

The Path to Peace

With all the military buildup and strategic maneuvering, one must ponder the future of peace negotiations. Currently, neither side shows any sign of giving up the fight. It's a war of attrition where both believe they can achieve their objectives through force. The prospect of peace talks remains elusive, as long as both sides retain the will to fight.

As the summer progresses and winter approaches, the realities of a prolonged conflict might become evident. The enormous cost and difficulty of altering the current frontline may eventually force a shift in attitudes. Only then can we hope to witness a meaningful step towards a peaceful resolution.

In the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, we witness a dance of unrelenting resolve, a tango of military might, diplomacy, and the human spirit. While the future remains uncertain, one thing is clear: this conflict, like a complex and mesmerizing dance, continues to captivate the world's attention.