"Fed No Pivot!" Commentary Thursday March 23 2023

In the world of finance, nothing is certain. The market is a wild beast, constantly shifting and changing, making it difficult to predict its next move. This is exactly what the speaker in our discussion is grappling with as they analyze a chart showing the trading range of a particular asset over the past year.

The speaker acknowledges that there is no clear trend in this chart, which means they need to look beyond the traditional indexes to gain a deeper understanding of the market. They also reveal that they are holding a significant amount of cash in their portfolio, indicating a cautious and protective stance. It's clear that uncertainty looms large in their mind.

The Changing Landscape of Work

As the speaker delves deeper into their analysis, they bring up an interesting point about the unique nature of the current economy. They highlight the shift in work habits and how it has impacted productivity. In their eyes, productivity is a crucial factor to consider when trying to make sense of the economy.

But what if there was a game-changer on the horizon? The speaker playfully ponders the potential impact of generative AI on productivity. They envision a future where robots run everything and everyone receives a universal income. While this may seem like a far-fetched idea, it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility. After all, innovation knows no bounds.

Navigating Volatility: The NASDAQ and Beyond

Shifting gears, our speaker turns their attention to the recent performance of the NASDAQ. They note that despite experiencing a volatile day, it managed to stay within its range. This resilience is impressive and worth noting.

To provide some context, the speaker shares support and resistance levels for the NASDAQ. However, they express skepticism about the success of a three-day trade, highlighting just how unpredictable short-term trading can be. It's important to approach such strategies with caution.

The speaker also points out that the NASDAQ is currently outperforming other markets like the S&P and Russell. This is a noteworthy observation, as it suggests that there may be unique opportunities within the NASDAQ for those willing to take a closer look.

The Russell: A Potential Breakthrough

Moving on to the Russell, our speaker identifies an interesting development. They note that it is approaching its 10-period moving average and may soon break through it. This could potentially signal a significant shift in the market.

To further support their analysis, the speaker introduces a pattern they